Fantasy Football Profile: Browns TE David Njoku
In the wake of Deshaun Watson's suspension being confirmed, Browns tight end David Njoku's fantasy value survives as much as it is going to be overlooked.
With Cleveland Browns quarterback DeShaun Watson now formally suspended 11 games (at least), the reactions are coming in. From a fantasy football perspective, the stocks of any Browns’ pass catcher has taken a hit. An expected hit, knowing that Watson would be suspended for some length of games, but a hit nonetheless.
Cleveland’s replacement for Watson, barring a trade for someone else (Jimmy Garoppolo?) is Jacoby Brissett. Limited as Brissett is, he could keep things on the rails for the Browns.
Over the last five seasons, via Jake Tribbey of Fantasy Points, Brissett has the third-highest target rate to tight ends (29.5 percent. Of course this is great news for David Njoku, who the Browns made one of the five-highest paid tight ends in the NFL this offseason.
Here’s what Tribbey had to say about Brissett’s propensity for targeting tight ends, and Njoku.
Whether in Indianapolis (28%) or Miami (27%), Brissett targeted TEs at an abnormally high rate. It’s certainly hard to trust a player like Njoku – who has just one outing of 15 or more fantasy points since 2019. But, we have to remember he’s the 5th-highest paid TE in the NFL ($13.7 million average salary), so if he were to see a big increase in volume, it would likely be after getting handed a $55 million contract. His athletic profile suggests he could have serious upside in a high-volume role, so I’m taking some chances on him here and there in drafts, albeit somewhat sparingly.
In 2017, Brissett started 15 games and played in all 16 for the Indianapolis Colts when Andrew Luck was sidelined by a shoulder injury. Tight end Jack Doyle led the team in catches by a good margin with 80 (second was T.Y. Hilton with 57) and was narrowly second on the team with 108 targets.
Doyle was a top-10 fantasy tight end in 2017.
In 2019, Brissett’s other nearly full season as the Colts’ starter after Luck retired (15 games), Doyle and Eric Ebron combined for 74 receptions, 124 targets, 823 yards and seven touchdowns. With that statline, you’d have had TE6 in full PPR.
Njoku is currently TE16 by Fantasy Pros’ ADP consensus, as the specter of Watson’s suspension and his own underachievement has kept that ADP in check. Now that Watson is suspended for most of the fantasy football season, a bump down a peg or two in ADP wouldn’t be out of the question.
The Browns’ passing offense as a whole won’t be explosive with Brissett under center, or perhaps especially consistent in terms of when someone has good weeks. But Njoku has a legit path to a TE1 finish, based purely on opportunity presented by Brissett’s affinity for throwing to tight ends, and he’ll come at a discount in drafts.