Fantasy Baseball Hype Train: Joe Musgrove to the Padres

Joe Musgrove is headed to the San Diego Padres, which has further grabbed the attention of the fantasy baseball masses. But can he justify the hype?

Credit: Jason Miller-Getty Images

The San Diego Padres have added Yu Darvish and Blake Snell to their starting rotation this offseason, but on Monday they were not done. As part of a three-team trade, Joe Musgrove is coming from the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Musgrove went 1-5 with a 3.86 ERA, a 12.5 K./9 and a 3.5 BB/9 over eight starts for the Pirates last year. He had a rough start, with a 6.75 ERA over his first three starts. After missing a month with a right triceps issue, he had a 2.16 ERA with 38 strikeouts (13.7 K/9) and five walks (1.8 BB/9) over his last five starts (25 innings). He had double-digit strikeouts in each of his last two outings (21 total), with just two walks over 13 shutout innings.

Peripheral numbers are complementary of Musgrove, as FIP (3.42), and xFIP (3.19) point to deserving better (pitching for the Pirates will do that to you). A high strikeout rate is tantalizing when paired with last year’s 48.4 percent ground ball rate.

Last season, Musgrove notable threw his four-seam fastball way less (27 percent, 37.6 percent in 2019 according to Statcast). Increased curveball usage (19.9 percent; 9.5 percent in 2019) paralleled that decrease. In September, via Brooks Baseball, he threw his slider almost as much as his fastball (25.31 percent) with an uptick in curveball usage (22.06 percent). The results in those five starts speak for themselves.

Musgrove finished 2019 strongly as well, with 2.89 ERA and a 32:5 K/BB ratio over his last five starts (28 innings). In seven of his last eight starts that year, he allowed three earned runs or less over at least five innings (at least six innings four times).

Looking at Fantasy Pros ADP right after the trade, Musgrove is coming in at around 164 overall and at SP51. In a 12-team league, that’s a high-end SP5. That ADP is sure to trend up now, so let’s look at some names Musgrove may get close to now (in inverse order)

Patrick Corbin-ADP 125-SP39
Charlie Morton-ADP 123-SP38
Sixto Sanchez-ADP 111-SP37
Julio Urias-ADP 110-111-SP36
Chris Paddack-ADP 105-SP35
Dylan Bundy-ADP 102-SP34

Musgrove arguably has more upside than all of the above guys, except Sanchez perhaps. A potential close ADP comp to new teammate Paddack could be interesting.

Tristan H. Cockcroft @SultanofStat

It's difficult not to see Joe Musgrove improving in 2021, just by virtue of his changing teams at all. Since Musgrove's MLB debut in 2016, only five pitchers had worse than his average 4.08 runs of support, and in 2019-20 combined, the Pirates' bullpen blew six of his leads.

Musgrove’s 2021 breakout prospects got good news with the move to a far better team. His ADP trend is worth watching, but there is still value to be mined here up to low-end SP3 range.

Joe Musgrove 2021 Projection: 12-7 record, 3.75 ERA, 175 innings (31 starts), 10.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9