Fantasy Football 2021: Dallas Goedert Outlook
Looking to fantasy football in 2021, does Dallas Goedert have a path to new heights as a top-tier TE?
On a per-game basis through Week 15, Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert is a top-10 tight end across the board (standard, full PPR and 0.5-point PPR scoring). Of course he has missed four games, so his overall standing for the season is down a notch or two from that.
Since Week 10 (through Week 15 as of this writing), Goedert is TE6 in standard and TE5 in full PPR. That may say as much about the tight end position as much as Goedert, but he does have a least six targets and four catches in all six games. In three of those six games, he has had over 65 yards or a touchdown (both twice).
In 2019, Goedert was TE10 regardless of scoring format, co-existing with Zach Ertz late in the season as the Eagles were thinned by injuries at wide receiver. So Goedert can be a top-10 fantasy tight end, that much is certain.
But, as many fantasy managers start to look to next year, does Goedert have a path to more in 2021?
In Jalen Hurts’ two starts entering Week 16, Goedert has 14 targets and an 18.9 percent target share. In seven games earlier in the season with Carson Wentz that Wentz finished, Goedert’s target share was 14.9 percent. Ertz was healthy for some of those Wentz games, which is a factor.
Absent the reversal of fading contract talks entering this season, the cap-strapped Eagles may entertain trading Ertz in the offseason. 2021 is effectively the last year of his contract, as it voids in February of 2022 (h/t to Over The Cap). He has a cap hit of $12.47 million for next year, with a dead money hit as well as some cap savings if they trade or cut him. More importantly, Goedert will be entering the final year of his rookie deal in 2021 and he’s better lined up than Ertz for a contract extension. It looks like the Eagles will have to make a choice on which guy they give a new deal to. As bad as Ertz looked this year before being sidelined by an ankle injury, it should be an easy choice.
The Eagles trading Ertz would be great news for Goedert’s fantasy outlook in 2021. He’ll be worth drafting as a top-10 option at the position anyway, but the ceiling goes way up if Philadelphia’s tight end target share is lined up to primarily be his.