2021 Fantasy Football Rookie Sleeper: Kenneth Gainwell
Kenneth Gainwell was drafted in the fifth round by the Philadelphia Eagles, but he's got a path to being an immediate factor for fantasy managers in 2021
Heading into last year, I wrote plenty about a bright fantasy outlook for Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders. He rewarded my call to not add a veteran back like Carlos Hyde and broader optimism with a RB21 finish in standard scoring, and a RB23 finish in full PPR (cue the sad trombone).
It hasn’t all been bad for Sanders. It’s just that 867 rushing yards and 197 receiving yards in 12 games last year did not meet the rosiest expectations.
The Eagles did not sign a free agent running back to really take a chunk of Sanders’ snaps. They did draft a running back though, using a fifth-round pick (No. 150 overall) on Kenneth Gainwell. Gainwell is another NFL back Memphis has produced, following Antonio Gibson, Darrell Henderson and Tony Pollard.
I know what you’re ready to say-a fifth-round pick is no threat to Sanders.
Gainwell opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19. As a redshirt freshman in 2019 he ran for 1,459 yards (6.3 yards per carry) and 13 touchdowns. He added 51 catches for 610 yards and three scores, as he played a chunk of snaps in the slot. Yes, he played a lot of soft competition. But in the Cotton Bowl against Penn State to end that season, Gainwell put up over 100 total yards with a rushing touchdown. So let’s dismiss the competition level issue.
According to Pro Football Focus, Miles Sanders posted the second-worst receiving grade among running backs in 2020 (33.9). His 52 targets was in the top-15 at the position, but his yardage (197) came in outside top-30. Going further, 3.8 yards per target and seven drops (second-most among running backs) begs for him to be replaced on passing downs. Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni has already pointed back to his days with the Colts with a vision of a Nyheim Hines role for Gainwell.
Gainwell comes in at 5-foot-8 and 201 pounds. The Eagles might see some Darren Sproles or Hines in him, but that is doing him a disservice. The clip above, where he steps up and levels Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons (the 12th overall pick in this year’s draft), shows he’s plenty willing to block.
Gainwell will have to do well in his role on passing downs to have any chance to wrestle a bigger role away from Sanders. And yes, let’s go ahead and assume Boston Scott and Jordan Howard will be easily usurped by the rookie.
Among Eagles running backs, via updated post-draft ADP on Fantasy Football Calculator, Sanders is RB16 and pick 3.03 in 12-team PPR mocks. Gainwell is RB65 (pick 13.06) in 12-team PPR, a notch below Scott at RB64. In 12-team standard scoring, as expected, Gainwell doesn’t register among the top 80 running backs in ADP right now.
Sanders hasn’t proven he can be a top-end running back, and the Eagles seem loathe to lean on him as a workhorse anyway. Gainwell is not on the immediate radar for all fantasy managers. But he’s a name to know right away in dynasty leagues, and a name to stash away for down the road in re-draft in case things take shape a certain way.
In looking for a comparable situation for Gainwell, Sanders and the Eagles this year, I see a hint of the Buffalo Bills 2020 backfield. Devin Singletary was begging to be replaced, and they drafted Zack Moss. Moss took the lead role on rushing downs, but that didn’t yield much value in a Buffalo offense that tilted pass. Gainwell will start out in a passing down role for the Eagles, with a path to pushing Sanders for carries. That’s the makings of a fantasy sleeper, and Gainwell is one I may like even more as time goes on.