Matt LaFleur's flawed process made Packers' loss in the NFC Championship Game inevitable

There's a flimsy case it was the right move, but Packers head coach Matt LaFleur made winning the biggest game of the season an uphill climb with too much in the way

I’m going to make this a little easier on myself by copying and pasting my own Facebook post from Monday morning-slightly edited for clarity.

“So you’re down 8 with a little over two minutes to go, in the NFC Championship Game. Kick a field goal to be down 5. So you need to:

1. Stop the Buccaneers (ideally three and out, maybe hope Tom Brady throws you another INT)

2. Ideally, not use all 3 of your timeouts on defense (2-minute warning will help)

3. Avoid mistakes on defense (hopefully an iffy penalty call doesn’t happen) and.....

4. Score a touchdown when (if) you get the ball back

Bad process=bad result, and the Packers are cleaning out their lockers today.”

The above is what Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur did Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers late in the NFC Championship Game. Down eight points, with three timeouts and the two-minute warning in his pocket, he opted for a field goal just before the two-minute warning to make the score 31-26.

Yes, the Packers’ defense was playing well and had intercepted Tom Brady three times. And yes, Aaron Rodgers wasn’t necessarily playing well himself.

But kicking the field goal meant counting on getting a quick stop (or another turnover) defensively, ideally not having to use all three timeouts on defense and then scoring a touchdown if you got the ball back. There was a questionable (if visually obvious on closer examination) pass interference call against the Packers when Tampa Bay had the ball again. But leaving your fate in the hands of a bunch of dominoes falling a certain way is tempting fate. LaFleur invited a loss, and that’s what he got.

I’m going to borrow (again) from a back-and-forth I had on Facebook, with my own scenarios for the situation that LaFleur probably had in some variation (or should have had) on the top of his mind.

“Scenario 1: Go for it on fourth down, but fail to score. Still down 8, but if you get a quick stop, you’ve flipped field position and you have to do the same as the first time around (TD plus 2) to tie. Or, effectively, the game is over if you don’t get a stop.

Scenario 2-Score a TD on fourth down, but miss the 2-point conversion. Still need a quick stop, but only need a field goal to win after. With Rodgers, playing well to that point or not, I’ll take my chances there.

Scenario 3-Kick a field goal, then get a fairly quick stop defensively and try to score a TD to win with the time that’s left.

The result does not always reflect the quality of the process. Bad process can yield a good result sometimes, and good process doesn’t always yield a good result. But LaFleur fleshed out the beginning of (at best) a strained process in deciding to kick a field goal with two minutes left in the biggest game of the Packers’ season. What he was counting on following the decision didn’t happen, and there was too much to bank on. And beyond a flawed process, it was also a tail-between-the-legs, give-up move.