Will Miguel Cabrera reach 3,000 hits and 500 home runs for his career this season?
Miguel Cabrera is withing striking distance of two huge milestones, but will he hit both this season?
Within his first few years of eligibility, Miguel Cabrera will be in the Hall Fame. One of the best right-handed hitters of his generation, quite possibly the best this side of Albert Pujols, his prime years are littered with great numbers.
Now, nearing 38 years old (April 18), Cabrera’s prime is well in the rearview mirror. He hasn’t hit .300 or posted a .450 slugging percentage since 2016, and in the last normal season (2019) his power was all but gone (12 home runs over 549 plate appearances).
But Cabrera is on the brink of two major milestones, and he’s got his sights on them in 2021.
Cabrera is 13 home runs shy of 500, and 134 hits from 3,000. He would be the 33rd player to reach 3,000 hits, and the 28th to hit 500 home runs. In the shortened 2020 campaign, as he shifted to strictly being a DH, he had a bit of a power surge with 10 home runs in 231 plate appearances (57 games). New Tigers manager A.J. Hinch has said he plans to play Cabrera a good bit at first base, and Cabrera seemed to be working out defensively this offseason.
If we use 2019 as a baseline, will Cabrera reach 500 home runs and 3,000 hits this year?
Cabrera played 136 games in 2019, with 107 as the Tigers’ starting DH (26 starts at first base). He had the aforementioned 12 home runs, and 139 hits. That playing time division might look similar this year, though ideally he’d trade at least a handful of games at first base for being the DH.
If Cabrera can get to 550 plate appearances this season, let’s say it’ll take 135 games with 4 or 5 plate appearances per game, 13 home runs and 134 hits feel likely (possibly with a little room to spare). The issue will be making sure he’s healthy enough to be in the lineup that much, and having him play first base any notable amount runs counter to that.
Ultimately, it won’t matter if Cabrera reaches either of his big milestones in 2021. The two additional guaranteed years he’s still got left on his bloated contract say he’ll get to finish the job in 2022, as a lingering shell of what he was. Unless he retires of course. But that doesn’t sound like it’ll happen, unless he gets to 500 home runs and 3,000 hits this year. Even then, assuming no serious injury, would you turn down $32 million in 2022? I smell a new “Career Salary” post…..