Fantasy Baseball Profile: Eddie Rosario
Eddie Rosario has signed with the Cleveland Indians, so what's the fantasy impact of his move?
The Minnesota Twins non-tendered outfielder Eddie Rosario earlier this offseason, and interest in him seemed to ramp up over the last week or so. On Friday night, the news came that he has signed a one-year, $8 million deal with the Cleveland Indians.
Last season with the Twins, Rosario had a .257/.316/.476 slash-line with 13 home runs and 42 RBI. A drop in batting average seems rooted in some bad fortune (.248 BABIP) and a drop in hard contact, though Statcast doesn’t have the drop as much as FanGraphs does. He still swings and misses a lot, and doesn’t walk much. But in last season’s short sample his walk rate (8.2 percent) more than doubled from 2019 (3.7 percent).
The Indians’ outfield posted a collective fWAR of -0.9 last year, so Rosario is an automatic upgrade. He’s lined up to hit in the middle of the order, likely cleanup behind Jose Ramirez in the No. 3 spot. In 45 career games (177 plate appearances, 170 at-bats) at Progressive Field, Rosario has a .353/.379/.653 slash-line with 11 home runs, 12 doubles and 25 RBI.
Rosario hit a career-high 32 home runs with a career-best 109 RBI in 2019. From 2017-2019, with at least 24 home runs each season, he averaged 28 home runs, 88 RBI, 86 runs scored and seven stolen bases per campaign. Using his 142 game-per season average from those three years and projecting it to 2020 (57 games), Rosario would have hit 32 home runs and driven in 104. Put together the second half of 2019 with all of last year, and Rosario hit 25 home runs with 91 RBI over less than 500 plate appearances.
Rosario can currently be drafted outside the top-30 outfielders in mixed fantasy leagues, between Giancarlo Stanton and 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis. That may shift upward some now that he has signed, maybe into the top-100 overall, but Rosario is still someone to keep an eye on as a draft day value. 25 home runs looks like the floor, with 40 home runs as the upside to go with a solid batting average, 80-90 runs scored and around a handful of steals.
