Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has arrived

A three-home run game Tuesday night is the big headline, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has arrived as the star he's been expected to be

On Tuesday night, Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. became the youngest player since at least 1901 to hit three home runs with seven RBI in a game. Two of those homers came off Nationals starter Max Scherzer, which is notable on its own.

All three of Guerrero’s home runs Tuesday night topped 100 MPH exit velocity. Two traveled more than 400 feet.

So far this season now (through Tuesday), Guerrero has a .360/.484/.693 slash-line (1.177 OPS, 231 OPS+) with seven home runs and 19 RBI. Through his first two major league seasons it was easy to be disappointed, and that makes it easy to forget he just turned 22 in March.

Part of the rub on Guerrero through his first 183 major league games was a notable propensity to hit ground balls. With ground ball rates above 50 percent in both 2019 and 2020, the impact of being top-7 percent in average exit velocity and hard hit rate (as he was in 2020) is naturally diminished. To paraphrase what Ted Williams said, when speaking about Mark McGwire during the 1998 home run chase, “A home run hitter should be revered for nothing more than his ability to hit the ball in the air.”

And that’s where the difference is for Guerrero right now. So far this year his fly ball, line drive and barrel rates are up from last year, albeit with a spike in his pop up rate in this year’s small early sample. But it all points to one data point.

To go with average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard hit rates at least in the 89th percentile, and a 75th percentile barrel rate (according to Statcast), Guerrero’s launch angle is 10.9 so far this year. That is more than double what it was last season (4.6).

So it’s an easy equation.

Hitting the ball hard (still)+ hitting the ball in the air=Power surge

Guerrero’s father was a notable bad-ball hitter, to great success. While he swings and misses a fair amount, Jr. doesn’t chase pitches quite like his dad did. His walk rate, with the caveat of only almost a month as the sample size, is 17.2 percent this year (94th percentile). A hitter who punishes pitches better than most and has a mature approach at the plate is the definition of dangerous.

No one in their right mind gave up on Guerrero, or doubted that his future was very bright after only around 750 major plate appearances over two seasons. After all, he was still an above average hitter (109 OPS+) over 2019 and 2020. But he has turned a notable corner this year, and arrived fully as the star he’s been anointed to be.